A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
